Pretty close to a very unique 9/9 but the Giants didn’t quite get up in the end.
I barely lost out on the bits and I seem to be getting some better looking probabilities now (close to other models). It’s going to be difficult to catch up.
Some devastating losses for Sydney, GWS, Essendon, Adelaide this week to really impact their finals chances. Sydney still odds on to make it, but they drop back to the pack of 6 fighting for 5 spots in the 8. GWS a bit of a smoky but injuries (and a pretty key suspension) will probably see them fade in the next couple once their expected “form” catches up.
Out of 10,000 simulations, Richmond made the Top 8 in every single one. It’d take something seriously dramatic (probably involving multiple key player outs) to change that significantly.
Hopefully by next week I’ll have a game-total model so I can simulate actual results (and thus, percentages) because it’s getting pretty bloody tight!
-Adam
AFL Lab 